Tesla Investor Blog

Here's a thought for everybody ahead of earnings tonight: What if, Tesla's increased operating margin and capex efficiencies are going to   allow Tesla to   increase its rate of growth going forward. Let me explain. Everybody who closely follows Tesla should be aware that Tesla's FCF (Free Cash Flow) has improved a lot as of late, and that Tesla's operating margin and FCF are only going to get better in the coming 1-2 years, because they haven't even started MiC M3 and MY deliveries yet. OPEX as a % of revenue -  https://hypercharts.co/tsla We also know that Tesla's capex efficiency per unit of production has improved dramatically with Giga Shanghai, and that the MY production ramp is looking like it'll be similarly efficient in terms of capex. Furthermore, this should only be the beginning, because  this is the first time Tesla has designed and built a factory from the ground up . This is not unlike the Model S, which was the first vehicle...

FY 2019 GAAP profits through execution Tesla's Q4'19 earnings that are coming up in a few days have been the most highly anticipated Tesla earnings in quite a while. There's a lot of hype around the surging stock price, and around the company in general due to high expectations for 2020. Besides improving fundamentals from the Giga 3 and Model Y ramps, many people are also very excited about the effect S&P 500 inclusion could have on the stock price. When Tesla is included in the S&P 500, a large number of funds tracking the S&P 500 index will be forced to buy Tesla stock. Some have estimated this could be as much as 15-20 million shares , based on studying what happened to Twitter when it was included in the S&P 500 in 2018 and its stock surged over 50%. The last requirement Tesla has to fulfill to be eligible for S&P 500 inclusion is to show TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) GAAP profits, which many people expect Tesla to hit some time in 2020, possibly...

Tesla's Q4'19 earnings are upon us, and could be released as early as Wednesday the 22nd of January. This blog will be pretty short and simple. I just want to share my earnings predictions. I have a few ideas for future blogs, but I'm not sure yet when I'll feel like writing something longer again. I think I'll probably share my predictions for Q1'20 very early though, because I think it has the potential to be a huge quarter, and it could have large implications for S&P 500 inclusion. My Q2 earnings and Q3 earnings forecasts were way off the mark, but third time's the charm, so let's give this another shot. Besides, in Q2 I had only just created my quarterly financial model, so it was not very detailed and I needed more practice. I predicted GAAP EPS of between -$1.46 and +$1.00 in Q2, but it turned out to be -$2.31, so my prediction was too bullish. Then in Q3 I improved my model and understanding of various line items, so I thought I'd b...