Tesla Investor Blog

I'm kind of tired, and I spent all week working on finishing my S&P 500 blog post , so I'm going to keep this forecast short. Just some brief comments, and the following important precaution. Although the accuracy of my model has gotten quite good as of late, and I was very close in Q4'19 and also in Q1'20 minus the surprisingly high credits sales, Q2'20 really has a lot of factors that are difficult to forecast: Credits sales. We don't know whether the $350M in credits sales in Q1, which were likely partially tied to the FCA deal, are dependent on EU sales volume or not. And if so, to what extent. Solar and Energy Storage installations are hard to forecast in the middle of a pandemic. Margins on two vehicles in the middle of production ramps (Shanghai M3 and MY) are hard to accurately forecast. FSD attach rates were reported to be much higher than usual, but it's hard to know exactly how much higher. There were also incentives/discounts for previous own

Introduction Although I overestimated Q2'20 deliveries by ~10k , Tesla nonetheless surprised Wall Street positively by reporting Q2'20 deliveries of 90,650 vehicles . As a result, talk about Tesla being included in the S&P 500 has once again intensified, because it's looking likely that it'll come one quarter sooner than many people, including I, anticipated. I had assumed that S&P 500 inclusion is a pretty well understood topic in Tesla investment communities, but I've noticed quite a bit of confusion and a lot of misunderstandings, so I decided to write this post and do a deep dive into the topic. Furthermore, although I believe that it's extremely hard to predict exactly what will happen to the stock price and I mostly just plan to sit back, relax, and watch the show, I am curious if I can make some estimations as to the magnitude of the forces at play, and if those estimations can help me make a more data based predict