Tesla Investor Blog

This is mostly a short blog for finance and spreadsheet nerds like me, because I've attempted to make a financial model for TSLA automotive leasing, and I am interested to see other people's opinion on it. But because it's earnings week next week, I figured I may as well also throw in my predictions for that. Last quarter I was quite far off, but I think that with some much appreciated feedback from a few TMC forum members, I was able to make my model more accurate, so I expect to be at least closer to reality this time. As always, if you're on a PC, it will be easiest to follow along with this blog by opening these spreadsheets yourself: Q3'19 Earnings Forecast Numbers Q3'19 Earnings Forecast PDF Q3'19 Earnings Forecast Excell Q3'19 Earnings Forecast Automotive Automotive Sales MS+X ASPs and Margins are very hard to estimate at the moment, because they've been so irregular as of late. Especially in Q2'19 the S+X had very lo

Introduction In my Tesla Investment Thesis from three months ago I talked about my positive outlook on Tesla as a company, and about why I am a long-term shareholder. In this blog I want to zoom in a little bit, and look at a somewhat shorter term perspective that I have on Tesla. I mentioned in my  Tesla Investment Thesis  that I have recently gone from being very positive about my investment to extremely positive. Part of this is thanks to the successful Model 3 ramp that has significantly de-risked the business, and that has now made it seem very likely that Tesla is no longer reliant on the capital markets to grow its business. The other recent development that made me even more bullish on Tesla than I was before was the Autonomy Investor Day , where Tesla proved to me that they are in the best position to be the leader in autonomous vehicles. However, the market does not seem to agree with me, because Tesla has recently been trading at record lows since the launch of the Mod