Tesla Investor Blog

This started as a TMC forum post, but it turned out so long and interesting that I decided to post it here as well. Size of the TSLA Options Market I wrote about this in  one my recent blog posts  too, but here is a bit more detailed comparison between some of the largest options markets.   These are the option markets with the highest open interest found  here . TSLA is ranked #24, and 15 out of the top 20 are not individual stocks but funds. Looking at this chart, one might think that TSLA is among the largest option markets, but that doesn't tell the entire story. Let's make some calculations to see what these open interests translate into in terms of dollars waged relative to market cap: #8 BAC: Bank of America As of March 25th, this is the highest open interest option market of any stock. Looking at  Barchart , it appears that 10% of the 4M open interest is (far) OTM call options expiring this week, and these options are trading b...

My prediction for Q4'19 turned out to be very close. I was off by ~$40M on gross profits, because Energy margins took a hit. This was most likely due to negative Solar Roof margins in Q4'19. I was also very close on my EBIT prediction (off by ~$100M), if you exclude the $70M expense related to the CEO compensation package. This Q1'20 forecast will be a little bit harder however, because it's hard to predict exactly what margins will be like for the MiC M3 in these early stages, as well as those of the Model Y. Solar Roof is also still ramping, and we lack official installation numbers. On top of all this, we're also dealing with some effects from the COVID-19 crisis that lead to 1-week unplanned shutdowns of all of Tesla's factories. Nonetheless, I've done my best to take all of this into consideration in my forecast, but this quarter is a little harder to predict than others. Energy Energy is almost pure guesswork to be honest, because we don...

Introduction Yesterday, Autoline released its weekly After Hours show, and they had a special guest, Montana Skeptic, whom I'm going to call Mr. Montana, and who spreads misinformation about Tesla on Twitter, and now apparently also through TV shows. In this blog I will lay out why Mr. Montana doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to Tesla, and why people would be wise to ignore the misinformation he is spreading. I've done so by quoting his anti-Tesla arguments from the interview, and breaking down in detail what's what with the help of facts and data. The full interview Subsidies (8:50-10:12) "It's heavily dependent on subsidies. If you add up all the subsidies Tesla has received, directly and indirectly, including the indirect ones, federal income tax credits, ZEV credits, regulatory credits, regulatory payments made by others, the $960M New York spent on its factory, the $1.3B that Nevada offered in its subsidy package, th...